[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110351 
NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-110515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634...

VALID 110351Z - 110515Z

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS/HAIL MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND WW EXPIRATION
...BUT NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BROKEN LINE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION...IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR
NORTHERN PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...HAS BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.  ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES... AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...INFLUENCE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND STRENGTHENING INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER BASED PARCELS ALREADY APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO
DIMINISHING TRENDS TO ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

STORMS ARE SLOWER TO DIMINISH WHERE LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS
STRONGEST...NORTH NORTHEAST OF WEAKENING...ELONGATED SURFACE LOW
LIFTING OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.  BY 06Z...MOST INTENSE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO BE CONFINED
TO AREAS WEST/NORTHWEST OF GRAND FORKS...BEFORE DIMINISHING/
DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

..KERR.. 07/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...

48939751 47709817 45799888 44349913 43080009 41940065
40950172 41540297 42860280 43750196 44770083 46350107
47320102 49030037 

WWWW