[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092208 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-100015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1715
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NW SD INTO WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 092208Z - 100015Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SURFACE HEATING APPEAR TO
HAVE BECOME MAXIMIZED EAST OF THERMAL LOW.  ONGOING ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY BASED IN HOT...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE
TEMPERATURE DEW POINTS SPREADS.  HOWEVER...PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSE ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES...ACTIVITY WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS APPEARS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MORE MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE.  SURFACE DEW POINTS
ACROSS THIS REGION ARE IN THE 70S...CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.

WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SHEAR PROFILES MAY BECOME MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.  ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 07/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...

45890372 47080409 48290353 48770226 48110135 46510145
45310134 44600325 

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