[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092054 
TXZ000-092230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1714
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CAPROCK VICINITY OF NW TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 092054Z - 092230Z

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS/PULSE-TYPE SEVERE
HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...INVOF CAPROCK REGION
OF NW TEXAS REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

REMNANT MCV EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SOUTH OF AMARILLO TO
LUBBOCK IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS NW TX AT THIS TIME. OWING
TO AMPLE INSOLATION AND LOW/MID 90S F SFC TEMPS...DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS
INVOF CAPROCK HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CU FIELD DEEPENING
OVER THE PAST HOUR. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR AMBIENT
CONDITIONS SUGGEST MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG AMIDST
NEGLIGIBLE CINH. IN SPITE OF AMPLE INSTABILITY...JAYTON TX PROFILER
DEPICTS RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /15 KTS 0-6 KM/. A FEW DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS/PULSE-TYPE SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN WEAK SHEAR/SLOW STORM MOTIONS.

..GUYER.. 07/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

35310112 35340024 34300001 32259945 32009995 32470083
32680126 33130156 33430154 34520127 

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