[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092213 
FLZ000-100015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 628...

VALID 092213Z - 100015Z

TORNADO WATCH 628 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...WITH MINI-SUPERCELL/TORNADO
POTENTIAL LIKELY INCREASING THIS EVENING.

HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NW/RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH OUTER BANDS EXTENDING INTO MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA/KEYS. AS OF 2215Z/615 PM EDT...VOLUMETRIC RADAR/SATELLITE
DATA IN CONJUCTION WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR SHOW A
DISTINCT CHARACTER CHANGE/INTENSIFICATION OF OUTER BAND CONVECTION
ARCING SE-NW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...ROUGHLY ALONG A VERO
BEACH-ORLANDO TO WEST OF OCALA/GAINESVILLE CORRIDOR. THIS IS LIKELY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE HURRICANE...AS WELL AS
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY/MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION INTO THE
E/NE PERIPHERY OF DENNIS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING STORMS/ISOLD TORNADOES PER WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES...WITH
IMPRESSIVE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS /OR GREATER/ MAXIMIZED
ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA.

GIVEN 03Z EXPIRATION...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REISSUED LATER
THIS EVENING. BEFORE THEN...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY
NECESSARY NWD EXPANSION/REORIENTATION OF TORNADO WATCH.

..GUYER.. 07/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX...TAE...

30048486 30698435 30458277 29118175 27048097 25388036
24648068 24568147 27468308 29298393 

WWWW