[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092042 
NDZ000-MTZ000-092245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH ERN MT AND EXTREME WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 092042Z - 092245Z

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER S CNTRL MT THIS AFTERNOON
THEN NEWD THROUGH ERN MT AND PARTS OF WRN ND THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN MT SWWD INTO SERN AND S
CNTRL MT JUST N OF BILLINGS. SRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING
SWD WHILE THE NRN PORTION CONTINUES SLOWLY EWD THROUGH ERN MT. LOW
LEVEL DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S N OF THE FRONT...AND AS THIS BOUNDARY
CONTINUES SWD...MOIST NLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER S CNTRL MT.
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING UPSLOPE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING MID
LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
S CNTRL MT. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD WHERE STRONG
SURFACE HEATING IS PROMOTING MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. FARTHER
NE ACROSS ERN MT THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR REMAINS CAPPED...BUT
THE CAP SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH OR
EXCEED 100F. THE WEAKENING CAP AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT OVER ERN MT DURING
THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO WRN ND.

..DIAL.. 07/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

46800793 47420624 48810499 48950403 48350363 47010423
45860548 45250726 45940915 46420914 

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