[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091621
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091620 
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-091815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...CNTRL AND ERN PA THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091620Z - 091815Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN NY THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN PA AND NRN AND
CNTRL NJ. ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WW.

THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NY DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD
WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS FEATURE. MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 6 KM FROM -14 TO -16 C IN VICINITY OF THE
UPPER LOW...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 60S WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO
2000 J/KG WILL BE LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE ALREADY
DEVELOPING ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM
NWRN PA THROUGH SRN NY...AND ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT
DEVELOPS SEWD TOWARD THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY AND GENERALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR
HAIL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DIAL.. 07/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

41847754 41837590 41787356 40747367 39827462 39897708
40737800 

WWWW