[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092007 
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-092200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S CNTRL MT AND A SMALL PART OF ERN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 092007Z - 092200Z

ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL MT MAY BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT WHERE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED IN
VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL SW-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND JUST
DOWNSTREAM FROM AN EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HEATING IS
PROMOTING DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER SWRN-SCNTRL MT WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000
J/KG. A BAND OF 50+ KT MID LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PROMOTE 40+ KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR... SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME  UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH BASED NATURE OF
THE STORMS WITH INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION MAY
ALSO AUGMENT THE THREAT FOR HAIL. WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND TENDENCY
FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO MIX OUT WITH TIME MAY SERVE AS
OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS.

..DIAL.. 07/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

46700839 46321133 44441356 44121255 44881088 45080944
45110703 

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