[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082029 
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-082230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1707
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD EXTREME ERN WY AND NWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 082029Z - 082230Z

THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SD AS WELL AS FARTHER SWD
WITH STORMS SPREADING EWD OUT OF WY. THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THREAT
SUGGESTS A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SD
AND ERN WY AS CAP WEAKENS AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ENHANCES
OROGRAPHIC FORCING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. MID LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD.
HOWEVER...SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY 15 KT AOA 4 KM WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO 25 TO 30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY MULTICELL STORMS AND ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..DIAL.. 07/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...

42160441 44850377 44770277 43900251 42000339 

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