[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082013 COR
TXZ000-NMZ000-082145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM THROUGH FAR W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 082013Z - 082145Z

CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IF THEY CAN DEVELOP EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND IF IT APPEARS
STORMS MAY SURVIVE EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...A WW MIGHT BE
NEEDED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN NM
THROUGH W TX. THE ATMOSPHERE E OF HIGHER TERRAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE
CAPPED. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THERMAL TROUGH
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NM IS RESULTING IN WEAK MID LEVEL NWLY
FLOW OF 10-15 KT. AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG WEAK DUE TO THE MODEST MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NWLY AT 6 KM IS
RESULTING IN 25 TO 30 KT DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE WEAK
UPPER FLOW AND PRESENCE OF CAP SUGGEST STORMS MAY INITIALLY STRUGGLE
TO DEVELOP E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WITH TIME STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING FARTHER EWD AS THE CAP
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

..DIAL.. 07/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

29590324 31580482 33270559 33930489 33050395 32030297
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