[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081754 
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-082000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI/NE IND AND NRN/CNTRL OH INTO NW
PA/EXTREME WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081754Z - 082000Z

ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NE IND AND NRN/CNTRL OH INTO NW PA/EXTREME WRN
NY. A SEVERE WATCH SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.

12Z UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS DEPICT COLD CORE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
FAR SRN ONTARIO/ERN GREAT LAKES...CHARACTERIZED BY -15/-16 C TEMPS
AT 500 MB. ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY FEATURES EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING SWD ACROSS NRN
LOWER MI. GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION...AIRMASS IS ALREADY UNCAPPED
ACROSS THE REGION BASED UPON MODIFIED 12Z DTX/BUF RAOBS. A
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.

MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 2000 J/KG MUCAPE. IN SPITE
OF MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /20 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OR LESS/ OWING
TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW...COLD TEMPS ALOFT/DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS THAT PULSE-TYPE ISOLD SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE OF SCENARIO
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 07/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

43588292 42318212 42508076 42757911 41837894 40348053
39878227 40148460 40998545 41798555 43408439 

WWWW