[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081854 
FLZ000-082100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA KEYS/FAR SRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081854Z - 082100Z

WITH THREAT FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS/FAR SRN FL PENINSULA WITHIN THE HOUR.

TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS/FAR SRN
FL PENINSULA THE EVENING WITH APPROACH OF OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE DENNIS. 18Z KEY WEST SOUNDING DEPICTS INCREASINGLY
DEEP ELY FLOW THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SINCE THIS
MORNING...WITH APPROX 15-20 KTS OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR CURRENTLY
EVIDENT IN 18Z EYW RAOB/KEY WEST WSR-88D VAD DATA. AMIDST A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE/SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
MINI-SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES THIS EVENING.

..GUYER.. 07/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW...

26528232 26688186 26268011 25018008 24488100 24528219
25688214 

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