[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080415
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080415 
NDZ000-080545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 080415Z - 080545Z

STRONGEST TSTMS OVER ND APPEAR TO BE FAVORING NRN PORTIONS OF THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 623 AND HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING
SINCE 04Z.  THE STORMS APPROACHING THE BISMARK VCNTY ALSO APPEAR TO
BE WEAKENING.

STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/LLJ AXIS SHOULD SHIFT/TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING A HIGHER RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL NORTH OF THE BORDER.  FARTHER S...THE STORMS HAVE YET TO
PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL AND DO NOT SEEM TO BE ACCELERATING
TO THE E OR SE ATTM.  NONETHELESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES DEPICT SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
TSTMS OVERNIGHT.  THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL
THREAT OVER AT LEAST CNTRL ND THROUGH 07Z.

IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW INTENSE/SEVERE THE MCS WILL BE LATER
TONIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD INTO ERN ND. IF IT MAINTAINS
INTENSITY...ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM.  BUT ATTM...THE
SHORT TERM SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE CONFINED WITHIN THE CURRENT WW.

..RACY.. 07/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

46900176 48960109 49039852 48109730 46249807 46100077 

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