[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071901 
SDZ000-WYZ000-072030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1692
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WY AND SD BLACK HILLS REGION / WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071901Z - 072030Z

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY...WITH A LESSER THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WW MAY BE NEEDED NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

TCU DEVELOPING OVER BLACK HILLS WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. MODIFIED
RAP SOUNDING INDICATES CAPPING IS GONE...SUGGESTING STORMS MAY
PERSIST AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. MORNING LBF
SOUNDING INDICATES LARGER MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN RAP
WITH 850 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 13C. GIVEN CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION...SURFACE HEATING...AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS
IN PLACE...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW SLOW STORM MOTIONS...WITH
SPLITTING CELLS POSSIBLE. DECREASING SUB-CLOUD LAYER RH MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL.

..JEWELL.. 07/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...

44560433 45430355 45490231 43100123 43060212 43110365
43680390 

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