[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071717 
NCZ000-VAZ000-071845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC THROUGH SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071717Z - 071845Z

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING FROM
NERN NC THROUGH SERN VA THIS AFTERNOON. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
A WW.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM SERN VA INTO NERN NC IN
VICINITY OF A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SURFACE HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG...BUT WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER
IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY
OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES MAY IMPROVE FURTHER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS REMNANTS OF CINDY CONTINUE NEWD. ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 07/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

36007536 36417664 37077826 35847797 35497546