[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 072001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072001 
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-072200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...ERN NM AND THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 072001Z - 072200Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH SERN CO AND
ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NM AND CO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IS DESTABILIZING WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG. TENDENCY FOR UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD HAS RESULTED IN SOMEWHAT
WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW WITH A MORE NLY COMPONENT AND MAY SERVE AS AN
OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. THEREFOR...STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE STRONGER
INSTABILITY EXISTS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW...VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT 0-6 KM VERTICAL
SHEAR OF 20-30 KT. MULTICELL STORMS STRUCTURES SHOULD BE THE
DOMINANT STORM TYPE. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO.

..DIAL.. 07/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

32750506 35180433 38450386 38160251 32830325