[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071433 
TXZ000-071630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1689
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0933 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071433Z - 071630Z

STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP ESEWD
THROUGH E CNTRL TX. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

THIS MORNING A SMALL MCS WAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL TX JUST W OF THE
DALLAS AREA. ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM DALLAS SWWD TO
NEAR LLANO. ACTIVITY IS MOVING ESEWD AT AROUND 30 KT. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE DOWNSTREAM
DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV
ACCOMPANYING THE MCS. VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR
NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE WEAK AMBIENT FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR.
HOWEVER...VWP DATA SUGGEST A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV OVER N CNTRL TX. MULTICELL CONVECTION WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..DIAL.. 07/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

30929758 31359741 32039694 32749658 32489524 31189507
30489596 30519709 

WWWW