[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061803 
COZ000-TXZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-061930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO INTO NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061803Z - 061930Z

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WW
MAY BE REQUIRED BY 19-20Z.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS/SMALL CB
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE SWD THROUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE IN NERN NM. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S HAVE ALLOWED IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE
WITH MLCAPES OF NOW AROUND 1000 J/KG. FURTHER HEATING THIS AFTERNOON
 SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS ERN CO INTO ERN NM
WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG.

LOCAL VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE WEAKER MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST S OR SSELY STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST
THAT INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH TIME...STORM PROPAGATION ALONG ANY ORGANIZING COLD POOLS MAY
SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ERN CO AND NERN NM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

..MEAD.. 07/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

41010585 40990282 35770306 35750567 

WWWW