[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060047 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-060245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1665
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / SRN MS / SRN AL / FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 607...

VALID 060047Z - 060245Z

AREA VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE THAT SHEAR MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ABOUT 100 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH NOTED ON LIX RADAR.
HOWEVER...FLOW DECREASES WITH HEIGHT ABOVE 3-4 KM AND SUGGESTS
MINIMAL THREAT OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. FARTHER E...MOB VAD
INDICATES STRENGTHENING FLOW. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES
STRENGTHENING FLOW AS WELL...WITH HODOGRAPHS BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AFTER ABOUT 04Z. HOWEVER...RUC DOES NOT APPEAR TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SURFACE LOW LOCATION. THE NAM DEPICTS THE
LOW LOCATION WELL...BUT THE WIND PROFILES FORECAST BY THIS MODEL ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE.  GIVEN INCREASING FLOW ON MOB VWP AND APPROACHING
CYCLONE CENTER...THERE MAY BE AN AREA OF FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES
DEVELOPING...WHERE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD
OCCUR.

..JEWELL.. 07/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

30858907 31308745 31328532 29588477 29658601 29478837
30348876