[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060257 
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-060430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1666
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...ERN CO...WRN KS...NERN NM AND TX/OK
PNHDLS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605...606...

VALID 060257Z - 060430Z

SEVERE TSTM WATCHES 605 AND 606 WILL EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR.
WHILE A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS COULD EXPERIENCE SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT. MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR A SUSTAINED THREAT AT THIS TIME
APPEAR TO BE THE TX PNHDL...AND PERHAPS A SMALL PORTION OF WRN NEB.

A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY NOW APPEARS TO BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

CURRENTLY A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION...WITH A FEW
POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...WAS WITHIN AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS FROM NERN
NM INTO THE TX AND OK PNHDLS. THIS BAND OF INTENSE STORMS CONTINUES
NEWD TO A WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
STRATIFORM RAIN REGION OF A SMALL MCS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SWRN KS.
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SEWD
ALONG RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE INTO NWRN OK. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
AHEAD OF THE KS MCS APPEARS LIMITED BY DECREASING INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING INHIBITION.

STORMS WITHIN THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PNHDLS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS ERN NM AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF
HAIL AND OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS.

FARTHER NORTH...A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT OF STORMS WAS MOVING INTO
NWRN KS AND INTO CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR MASS WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY. A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS EXPANDING ALONG A SEWD
MOVING ARC ACROSS NRN NEB...OVER CHERRY COUNTY. INSTABILITY AND
INFLOW INTO THIS COMPLEX COULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ALONG THIS LINE AS IT SPREADS SEWD
ACROSS THE REST OF NEB TONIGHT.

..CARBIN.. 07/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

34560309 34660500 36220522 37640260 39570360 41120367
41930347 43070197 43089984 42949918 40899903 37039899
35400073 

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