[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060013 
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-060215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...WRN SD...NEB PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 606...

VALID 060013Z - 060215Z

A NUMBER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WRN SD AND THE
NEB PNHDL THIS EVENING. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY WAS NOTED OVER ERN
WY. MOST PERSISTENT STORM CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH WEAK
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER DAWES COUNTY NEB. THIS CONVECTION WAS
DRIFTING SOUTH INTO A POCKET OF STRONG INSTABILITY. OTHER VIGOROUS
STORMS WERE OCCURRING ON AND NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT...FROM THE
NERN PART OF WATCH 606...OVER WRN SD...EWD ACROSS SCNTRL SD. FORCING
FOR ASCENT FROM PASSING MID LEVEL IMPULSE...COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY... SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SEVERE HAIL AND WIND INTO
THE EVENING. A SMALL MCS OR TWO MAY NOW BE EVOLVING FROM THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM FROM
THIS DEVELOPMENT LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SEVERE
POTENTIAL CAN PERSIST ACROSS WRN NEB. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IF IT APPEARS STORMS CAN MAINTAIN
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY.

..CARBIN.. 07/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...

40970193 40930495 44950608 44910286