[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051853 
NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-COZ000-052030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1662
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY INTO WRN SD AND THE NEB PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051853Z - 052030Z

APPEARS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA AND A WW WILL BE REQUIRED BEFORE 20Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW TSTMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS WITH ADDITIONAL DEEPENING CUMULUS
ALONG LEE TROUGH NE OF CPR SWD TO CYS. 18Z RAP SOUNDING SHOWS THAT
AIR MASS OVER WRN SD HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG/ WITH LIKELY A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WWD
INTO ERN WY. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH TSTMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER ERN WY INTO WRN SD.

MODEST /20-25 KT/ WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SLY/SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER
WINDS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..MEAD.. 07/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

45010632 45000250 41020246 41000624 

WWWW