[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051834 
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-051930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO INTO NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051834Z - 051930Z

POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AND A WW WILL BE REQUIRED BY
20Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO
FRONT RANGE SWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE IN
NRN NM. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN WNWLY MEAN FLOW IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EWD
ACROSS WRN INTO CNTRL CO...WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT. IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING. MODIFICATION OF 18Z DEN SOUNDING FOR SURFACE
CONDITIONS AT LIC YIELDS SBCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND A WEAKENING
CAP. 

GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS ON LOCAL VADS/VWPS...EXPECT
DEVELOPING STORMS TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SUPERCELLS APPEAR
LIKELY WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 07/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

40930571 40990260 35770268 35890560 

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