[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051801 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-051930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...VA/NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051801Z - 051930Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH
MOST INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

APPEARS TWO REGIMES MAY FOCUS CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE FIRST IS ALONG AND E
OF A PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF MRB TO W OF RIC TO E
OF RWI. A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED
E OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN TSTM
ACTIVITY FROM NEAR RIC TO W OF ORF TO E OF RWI. MOREOVER...MORE SLY
SURFACE WINDS OVER ERN VA/NC WHEN COUPLED WITH MODEST /I.E. 20-25
KT/ WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...RELATIVELY
HIGH WBZH OF 12-13 KFT WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE MELTING.

THE SECOND REGIME IS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN VA/NC EWD INTO
THE PIEDMONT REGION WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ERN KY/TN. WHILE
DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY ARE COMPARATIVELY LOWER THAN
POINTS TO THE E...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP FOCUS INCREASING STORM COVERAGE INTO THE
PIEDMONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT A GREATER THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL WITH
THESE STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 07/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...

35468160 36638141 37867980 38127851 38217716 37297630
35827657 34867699 34097831 34847992