[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051740 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-052015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / SRN MS / SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051740Z - 052015Z

WE ARE MONITORING THE AREA FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL. A WW COULD BE
REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FEEDING NWD E OF
LOW CENTER...WITH DEWPOINTS OF 75-80. IN ADDITION...SOME HEATING WAS
OCCURRING AT MIDDAY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN AL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.  

AREA VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR OF 15-25 KTS...AND 0-1 SRH VALUES
GENERALLY AROUND 25-50 M2/S2 ONSHORE.  HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES ARE
LIKELY STRONGER FARTHER SW CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. 
THEREFORE...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS
TROPICAL LOW CENTER NEARS THE COAST. IF WIND PROFILES INCREASE...A
TORNADO WATCH WOULD BE LIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 07/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

30458711 31208721 31328824 31118941 30439039 30079032
28908928 29308878 29768795 29808696 

WWWW