[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051655
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051655 
VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-051830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1658
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051655Z - 051830Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH
INTENSIFYING STORMS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS INTENSIFYING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM 30 SW OF MSS SWD TO NEAR MSV. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN A WEAKLY FORCED
LARGE-SCALE ENVIR0NMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP TROPOSPHERIC SWLY
FLOW. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WRN NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

IT APPEARS THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF IT
BECOMES APPARENT A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...A
WW WOULD NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

..MEAD.. 07/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...

41807498 44547564 45007475 45017241 41677293 41247394 

WWWW