[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051626
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051626 
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-051800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OH INTO WRN PORTIONS OF PA/NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051626Z - 051800Z

POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FROM W TO E ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

AS OF 1615Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING ALONG COLD
FRONT OVER CNTRL OH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS
SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER WRN/CNTRL OH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS INTENSIFICATION.
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS ERN OH INTO WRN PA/NY IS MOIST WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED HEATING AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION THUS FAR TODAY.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER SERN OH
INTO SWRN PA AND OVER WRN NY SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY STRONGER
DIABATIC HEATING. WHEN COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS. SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW 
WITH 25-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR /PER LOCAL VWPS/ SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF
STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.

..MEAD.. 07/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

40738236 41528141 42128033 42957886 42247766 40747830
39667980 39368153 39238231 39918263 

WWWW