[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041918 
MIZ000-INZ000-042045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1642
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI INTO NRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041918Z - 042045Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS REGION AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS
FIELD/DEVELOPING TSTMS FROM CNTRL LOWER MI INTO N-CNTRL IND ALONG/E
OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT EXTENDING FROM N OF LAN SWWD TO JUST E OF
SBN. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
FARTHER N...PERSISTENT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION HAVE ESTABLISHED A W-E
ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ACROSS CNTRL
LOWER MI...WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING RAPIDLY N OF THIS BOUNDARY.

GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40-45 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL EXIST: 1) WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED ALONG 
ALONG THE WIND SHIFT OR ALONG/S OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY...AND/OR 2) IF CURRENT STRONG/SEVERE STORM NE OF CHI CAN
MAINTAIN IT/S INTENSITY WHILE MOVING ACROSS SRN LAKE MI.

..MEAD.. 07/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

41428605 41748674 42638628 43268477 43468377 43028271
42018323 41778457 

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