[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042003 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-042200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX AND FAR E-CENTRAL/NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042003Z - 042200Z

ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS...AND IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
E-CENTRAL/NERN NM. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS. A WW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY BE
MARGINAL. 

AT 1930Z...MAF 88D SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THERMAL LOW
OVER SWRN TX WITH ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE EXTENDING
E-W FROM 40NE HOB TO 30N ABI PER VIS SATELLITE AND WEST TX MESONET
OBS. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED WWD INTO LBB AREA NEAR
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
STRONG HEATING HAS RESULTED IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG FROM NEAR LBB SSEWD TO SJT. BOUNDARY
LAYER CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THIS REGION...AND IS
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE S-SE OF LBB. 

REMAINING CAPPING AND WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE
INHIBITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. HIGH-BASED TOWERING CU SPREADING OFF THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE SRN ROCKIES MAY SEPARATELY DEVELOP INTO ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
FAR E-CENTRAL/NERN NM AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS WNWWD. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 20KT SHOULD
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS OR SMALL
MULTICELLULAR STORM CLUSTERS. STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS MAY ALSO SUPPORT
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS DCAPE VALUES INCREASE WITH
CONTINUED DEEPENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER.

..BANACOS.. 07/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

32119921 31729907 31489922 31300000 31350044 32060109
32930223 33990365 35040457 35860488 36490494 36860472
37000436 36930307 35230260 34120050 33749987 33369955
32779936 

WWWW