[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041821 
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-041945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS/W-CNTRL INTO NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041821Z - 041945Z

POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH MOST
INTENSE TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS OF 1810Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SPIRAL-SHAPED CLUSTER
OF TSTMS FROM NEAR HSV WWD TO TUP AND THEN SEWD TO S OF TCL
ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD ACROSS
REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA WITH
MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. 

WHILE OKOLONA MS PROFILER INDICATES QUITE WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR...PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING NEWD AROUND VORTICITY
MAX WILL SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING/STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WBZH OF 11.5-12.5 KFT WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
MELTING OF ANY HAIL STONES. 

STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD OUT OF NERN MS
ACROSS NRN AL AND INTO SRN MIDDLE TN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...WITHIN REGION OF STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

..MEAD.. 07/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

33438924 34248912 34978826 35488779 35798679 35498611
34918604 34388628 33658649 32978679 32618737 32848870 

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