[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041725
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041724 
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-041930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1640
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...ERN/NERN CO...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041724Z - 041930Z

FOOTHILLS OF SERN WY SWD ALONG CO FRONT RANGE ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE
MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
LIKELY REQUIRE WW WITHIN NEXT 2-4 HOURS. ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-BORDER
REGION OF CO/WY/NEB THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 

AT 17Z...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN KS WNWWD TO JUST
SOUTH OF AKO TO ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES FROM CYS/CPR.
SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND SFC ANTICYCLONE AND NORTH OF FRONT SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS NWWD ACROSS NERN CO INTO SERN WY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW-LEVEL STATUS DISSIPATES ACROSS SERN WY THIS
AFTERNOON...INSOLATION SHOULD LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS LIKELY HOLDING
IN THE MID 50S IN FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE UPPER DYNAMIC FEATURES APPEAR
DIFFUSE UPSTREAM...MODELS MAINTAIN BAND OF 30-35KT 500MB FLOW ACROSS
SERN WY/NERN CO THROUGH 03/00Z. ALSO...500MB TEMPERATURES ARE
RELATIVELY COOL FOR JULY WITH -12C ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SPREADING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS SERN WY/NERN CO
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. 

WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...PROFILES WILL BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS /SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT/ WITH LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. SFC T-TD
SPREADS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY LARGE FOR TORNADOES DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. GREATEST THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD BE
WITHIN PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND IN AREAS OF BACKED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW PROGGED ACROSS NERN CO INTO THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE AND EXTREME
SERN WY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..BANACOS.. 07/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

39730446 41190522 42480603 42880572 42880415 42780366
42130280 41040218 39320213 38750214 38770330 38750426 

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