[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041721 
MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-041845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1639
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO INTO N-CNTRL/NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041721Z - 041845Z

AN INCREASING THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED ALONG COLD FRONT FROM W OF STL TO SSE OF TBN WITHIN WEAKLY
CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ AIR MASS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PLAN VIEW VAD/VWP FIELDS INDICATE A CORRIDOR
OF 40-45 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WRN MO...FROM NERN OK/SWRN MO INTO CNTRL IL...WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD/NEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM STL SWD TO ALONG
NRN EXTENSION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NERN AR /NEAR OR W OF ARG/.
THIS COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LINE SEGMENTS AND STORM
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 07/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

38309123 38479096 38489020 37258977 35419065 35189201
35509240 36869219 

WWWW