[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041635 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-041800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1638
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR SWWD INTO NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041635Z - 041800Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW DEEPENING
CUMULUS/SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING FROM NEAR ELD SWWD TO W
OF TYR ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER
SRN OK. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS WARMED THROUGH THE
80S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...HAS
RESULTED IN MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION...SUPPORTING VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST
INTENSE STORMS...IT APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /PER
LOCAL PROFILERS/ WILL BE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT.

..MEAD.. 07/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

32309683 32799587 33549413 34209301 34869262 34919212
34119158 32979226 32159326 31669474 31379642 31659698 

WWWW