[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041613 
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-041745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1637
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL SWWD INTO E-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041613Z - 041745Z

SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

AS OF 1557Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM APPROXIMATELY 35
SE DBQ TO 25 NNW STL...WITH MORE ISOLATED CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP AS
FAR S AS 35 W OF CGI. MODIFICATION OF 12Z ILX SOUNDING FOR CURRENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITHIN IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OF
DEVELOPING STORMS YIELDS SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND A WEAKENING
CAP. DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS MO WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
A CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON.

RECENT TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW VEERING SURFACE
WINDS WHICH IS RESULTING IN LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
DEPTH OF THE PROFILE /PER LOCAL VWPS/VADS/. NONETHELESS...
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MO IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WITH
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR DEVELOPING TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINE
SEGMENTS/STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 07/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

39439073 41039002 41728933 42158827 42128764 41558726
40628763 39168875 38398930 38168996 38189055 38829098 

WWWW