[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041012 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-041115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN 2/3 OF OK INTO NWRN AR/FAR SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595...

VALID 041012Z - 041115Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF OK.

TRENDS IN RADAR DATA INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE BOW ECHO INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR AND ERN OK DURING
THE LAST HOUR. THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH THIS BOW
EXTENDED WSWWD ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL-SWRN OK ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN SWWD TO NEAR LBB.  STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE EARLY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK WITHIN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA REGIME ALONG THE NOSE OF A 45 KT SSWLY LLJ AND
ATOP THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLIER BOW ECHO.  THIS NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS...GIVEN
35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
INFLOW AIR MASS.

..PETERS.. 07/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

34509966 34909946 35479906 36089952 36289924 36119808
36149705 35919554 36009504 36919489 36849250 35159400
34099476 33849581 34129893 

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