[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 040753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040753 
MIZ000-WIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-040930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1633
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN-ERN WI AND LAKE MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 040753Z - 040930Z

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM ERN IA INTO NRN
IL AND NEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING.  ISOLATED HAIL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

WV IMAGERY SHOWED A TROUGH MOVING EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SSWWD TO SWRN WI AND THEN INTO
CENTRAL IA TO ERN/SERN NEB.  30 KT SWLY LLJ LOCATED EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND NOSING INTO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA ACROSS THIS AREA.  ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT OF A
35 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AND THE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

INFLOW TO THESE THUNDERSTORMS PER SWLY LLJ IS ORIGINATING FROM IA
WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS REMAINED MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  EFFECTIVE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK SUGGESTING STORMS WILL TEND TO BE PULSE WITH
ISOLATED HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..PETERS.. 07/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

41188748 40418888 41019107 41419205 42419240 43299144
44389006 45548833 45568701 44498591 42918647 

WWWW