[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 040641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040640 
ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE/SRN HALF OF OK/NRN TX/WRN AR/SWRN
MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 591...593...

VALID 040640Z - 040715Z

STRONGEST BOW ECHO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS ERN
PORTIONS OF WW 593 DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS...WITH WIDESPREAD WIND
THREAT REACHING FAR ERN OK TO ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER BY 09Z.
HAIL...WITH LESS OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED ATTM TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK AND PARTS OF THE
ERN TX PANHANDLE.  A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE SOUTH OF WW 593.

WELL ORGANIZED BOW ECHO CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM SERN KS /50 NNW BVO/
TO JUST NORTH OF THE OKC METRO AREA...WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THEN
EXTENDING WEST THEN WNWWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE.  A LEAD LINE OF
STORMS ALSO MOVING ESE EXTENDED FROM SERN KS TO AROUND TUL. 
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE PRIMARY BOW ECHO SEWD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK TO WRN AR AND NRN-NERN TX.  THIS AXIS...GIVEN
THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND 40-45 KT SLY LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL
OK...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A MORE PERSISTENT WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT.


WEST OF THIS REGION INTO WRN OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND
POTENTIALLY NWRN TX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO HAVE ELEVATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS LOCATED ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE SWD MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.  45-50 KT SLY LLJ LOCATED FROM WRN TX INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE/WRN OK WILL MAINTAIN WAA REGIME FOR ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT.  45-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...IN
ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY BOW.

..PETERS.. 07/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...

36460104 37070032 37149898 36569796 36829687 37599655
37249539 36759380 34569341 33349425 33029590 33319882
33799984 35490100 

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