[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 040801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040800 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-041000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB/NW KS/FAR NE CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 040800Z - 041000Z

POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARY THREAT OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY
PERSIST/DEVELOP S/SE ACROSS SW NEB/FAR NE CO INTO NW KS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE WATCH.

PERSISTENT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX -- LOCATED BETWEEN
SIDNEY AND IMPERIAL NEB AT 08Z -- CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
S/SE...WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE OVER
THE PAST HOUR. COMPLEX MAY BE AIDED BY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER
SRN WY/NRN CO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP S/SE OVERNIGHT INVOF
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE.

06Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AS MUCH AS 750-1000 J/KG MUCAPE FOR
ELEVATED PARCELS. AMPLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS EXISTS OVER THE
REGION PER PROFILER NETWORK/LOCAL WSR-88D VADS IN ACCORDANCE WITH
RUC GUIDANCE. SRN EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT/POTENTIAL SEVERITY APPEARS
QUESTIONABLE PROGRESSIVELY SWD INTO ECNTRL CO/WCNTRL KS GIVEN
OVERTURNED NATURE OF AIRMASS VIA EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

..GUYER.. 07/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

41500215 41570104 40890011 40220005 38790031 38820245
39750303 40910294 

WWWW