[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 040502
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040501 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-040630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1631
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO...NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 040501Z - 040630Z

A VERY LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD ACROSS PARTS OF
KS AND OK LATE TONIGHT. A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY
AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX...FROM EXTREME SWRN MO INTO NWRN AR...WITHIN
1-2 HOURS.

A VERY LARGE AND INTENSE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS
MUCH OF SERN KS WITH A PAIR OF SEVERE SQUALL LINES EXTENDING
SWD/SWWD ACROSS PARTS OF NERN OK AND NWRN OK ATTM. AIRMASS FEEDING
INTO THIS COMPLEX REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE. LATEST TRENDS IN
PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY
AND WILL MAINTAIN STRONG MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT...FROM NRN OK EWD INTO NWRN AR. OVERALL
PATTERN AND SYSTEM MOTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT A SEVERE WIND THREAT
MAY EXPAND EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WOULD BRING SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO PARTS OF
AR AND SWRN MO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...A NEW WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPMENT IN ABOUT 1-2 HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 07/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

35139450 35749449 37579456 37569241 35149238 

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