[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 040425
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040425 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-040600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1630
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS/NRN AND CNTRL OK/FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593...594...

VALID 040425Z - 040600Z

SEVERE TSTM WATCH 593 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NRN/CNTRL OK AND ERN TX
PANHANDLE UNTIL 09Z...WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
INCREASING ACROSS NRN HALF OF OK. VALID PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH
594 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN KS UNTIL 06Z.

SEVERE TSTMS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ONGOING ACROSS SRN KS INTO FAR NRN
OK...WITH HISTORY OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. VARIOUS
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SWD THROUGH NRN OK...AHEAD
OF 1) INTENSE STORMS FROM CHANUTE KS TO NEAR PONCA CITY OK AND 2)
LINE ROUGHLY ALONG HUTCHINSON KS-MEDICINE LODGE KS-GAGE OK CORRIDOR
SURGING SEWD AT 35 KTS.

AFOREMENTIONED STORMS IN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE TULSA METRO AREA AS EARLY AS 05Z-0530Z TIMEFRAME.
LATTER MENTIONED LINE OF STORMS /HUT-P28-GAG AT 04Z/ EXPECTED TO
IMPACT NW/NCNTRL INTO CNTRL OK OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO THE OKC
METRO AREA BETWEEN 06Z-07Z...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY FURTHER LINE
ACCELERATION.

OVERALL SCENARIO OF STEADILY INCREASING SEWD PROPAGATION INTO VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUPPORTED BY CONTINUAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT /WITH
3-5 MB PER 2-HR RISES AT 04Z/ AND INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET
EVIDENT IN REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VADS. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS WW
594/SRN KS...NORTH OF CONGLOMERATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...MAIN
HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO LARGE HAIL OWING TO REMNANT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

..GUYER.. 07/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

37759916 37669716 37389667 36709495 35889460 35349519
35229716 35599935 36160025 37120024 

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