[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 032203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032202 
MOZ000-KSZ000-040000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 032202Z - 040000Z

A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND WRN MO
SHORTLY.

SCATTERED INTENSE STORMS WERE INCREASING ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS NERN KS AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF
SCNTRL KS MCS. ENVIRONMENT IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE BUT GENERALLY WEAK
MID LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO BE LIMITING STORM ORGANIZATION AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...GIVEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE
REGION FROM NEB/IA...AND GENERAL EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SEVERE MCS
ACROSS SCNTRL KS...STORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION AND STRENGTH OF MESOSCALE FORCING MAY COMPENSATE
FOR LACK OF GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO PROMOTE NUMEROUS MULTICELL
STORM CLUSTERS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL. A
WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED FOR THIS SITUATION.

..CARBIN.. 07/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

37559403 37669609 39919608 39959511 40539440 39499260 

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