[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 032039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032039 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-032215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...OK PNHDL/NRN TX PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 032039Z - 032215Z

SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD INCREASING OVER THE
WRN OK AND NWRN TX PNHDLS WITHIN HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED POST-DRYLINE
AIR MASS. CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING E OF DRYLINE SHOULD SUPPORT EWD
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE DEEPER CONVECTIVE CIRCULATIONS...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO EVENTUAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. TUCUMCARI PROFILER HAS SHOWN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR NOW MARGINAL SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED TSTMS. LARGE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A
COLD POOL.

..MEAD.. 07/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

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