[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031854 
SCZ000-GAZ000-032130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CENTRAL SC WWD TO NERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 031854Z - 032130Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL /IN EXCESS
OF 2IN/HR/ SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FROM E-CENTRAL SC
WWD TO NERN GA. LOCALIZED NATURE OF WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL
PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.  

COVERAGE OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH
PEAK HEATING FROM NERN SC TO NERN GA. LOW-LEVEL NELY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS FOCUSING CONVERGENCE
ZONE FROM NERN SC WSWWD THROUGH CAE TO FAR NERN GA. POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXIST AROUND ONGOING TSTMS WITH 100MB MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CINH. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR GENERATION OF ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG CONVECTIVELY GENERATED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODERATE SFC-6KM
SHEAR OF 30-35KT EXISTS PER GSP AND CAE VAD WIND PROFILES. THIS
SUGGESTS A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS OR MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH
WBZ HEIGHTS SUGGEST MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY. LASTLY...PW VALUES REMAIN AOA 2 IN.
SMALL ANGLE BETWEEN E-W CONVERGENCE ZONE AND GENERAL ENEWD MOTION OF
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ACTIVITY JUST SOUTH OF CAE AND ALSO WITH OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER WRN SC/FAR NERN GA.

..BANACOS.. 07/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

34798323 35078270 34828193 34338112 34168026 34077922
33847880 33467890 33067933 33037990 32978042 32938094
32998153 33258218 33598281 34508344 

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