[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031825 
IAZ000-MNZ000-032100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1618
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL MN AND CENTRAL/WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031825Z - 032100Z

POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXISTS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO NWRN IA DURING THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. REGION
IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

AT 18Z...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR STC SWWD TO SUX...WITH LINE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER CU COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BAND. DECAYING
MCS OVER ERN IA HAS RESULTED IN LARGE RAIN COOLED AREA ACROSS SERN
MN AND MUCH OF N-CENTRAL/NERN IA. AIR MASS RECOVERY HAS BEEN MOST
RAPID ACROSS NWRN IA WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS NARROWING NEWD JUST
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS S-CENTRAL MN. SPECIAL 18Z
SOUNDING FROM OAX SUGGESTS MODERATE CINH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. ADDITIONALLY...CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM NWRN KS STORM
CLUSTER CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH MAY
LIMIT SURFACE HEATING TO SOME DEGREE. 

THUS...TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR COLD FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...THAT
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP DURING PEAK
HEATING PERIOD /20-22Z/ ACROSS NWRN IA/S-CENTRAL MN. STRONG SWLY
SFC-6KM SHEAR AND MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG OVER NWRN IA
SUGGESTS CONVECTION IN THIS AREA WOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.8 C/KM AT
OAX...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH IN PLACE...IN AREAS OF
BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHERE SRH WILL BE ENHANCED.

..BANACOS.. 07/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

42459619 43459571 44209530 44679486 44949445 45429374
44779348 44129340 43159324 42339335 41789349 41299397
41349490 41359547 41799600 42179622