[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031802 
COZ000-031930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031802Z - 031930Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEVELOPING STORMS MOVE E AND ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. 

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE DEEPENING
CUMULUS/SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT OVER CNTRL CO...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. CURRENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS WITHIN IMMEDIATE
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER AND RESULTANT WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. AS STORMS MOVE OUT
OF THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR ISOLATED...DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL. THE THREAT FOR
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP EWD/SEWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER FAR ERN CO INTO WRN KS.

..MEAD.. 07/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

38490581 39630526 39810417 39370312 38120293 37380356
37160418 37160503 37530567 

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