[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031711 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-031815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587...

VALID 031711Z - 031815Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND 18Z AND A NEW WW
MAY BE REQUIRED.

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST
AS OF NOON OVER DECATUR...NORTON...SHERIDAN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN
NWRN KS. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS AND VAD/VWP PLOTS SUGGEST THAT
ACTIVITY IS LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY ASCENT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ALONG WRN EDGE OF SSWLY 30-40 KT LLJ AXIS. MODIFICATION OF 12Z DDC
FOR CURRENT OBSERVATION AT RSL INDICATES THAT THESE STORMS ARE
LIKELY STILL ELEVATED...HOWEVER PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND INFLUX OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ATOP OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.

CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING MAY ALLOW SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME
SURFACE-BASED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL SPREADING EWD INTO N-CNTRL KS.
ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO ANTICIPATED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SW OF GLD TO NEAR
RSL...AND EVENTUALLY SWWD ALONG TROUGH AXIS FROM INTERSECTION WITH
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SWRN KS.

..MEAD.. 07/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

40320229 40329925 38249897 38210193 

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