[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031558
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031557 
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-031830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS...CENTRAL/NRN AL...AND WRN/NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031557Z - 031830Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN AXIS
FROM E-CENTRAL MS ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN AL INTO WRN/NWRN GA. THREAT
EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGE FROM WET MICRO BURSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES.

AT 1530Z...WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH
VALLEY WHICH EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS NWRN MS AND TO THE GULF COAST IN
VICINITY OF DECAYING MCS OFF THE SRN LA COAST. THE 12Z 500MB
ANALYSIS INDICATED MODEST COLD POOL ACROSS MS/AL WITH TEMPERATURES
OF -8 TO -9C. THIS THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT ENEWD WITH BAND OF
15-25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNWIND OF REMNANT MCS CIRCULATION AND
SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH AXIS. WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS /LOW TO MID 70S/ ACROSS CENTRAL AL ENEWD
INTO NWRN GA...VERTICAL THETA-E DIFFERENCES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN
THIS ZONE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MORNING BHM SOUNDING
INDICATED MODEST DRY LAYERS ABOVE 700MB WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MUCAPE
VALUES UP TO 3500 J/KG ARE ALSO LIKELY DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS...PROVIDING FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR STRONG
STORM-SCALE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. WSWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 15-25KT MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS...HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD STEM FROM WET MICRO BURSTS WITH STRONGER CORES AND
RESULTING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH MAY AID CELL LONGEVITY
AND WBZ HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT.

..BANACOS.. 07/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

33328884 34418780 34918634 34918487 34598409 33798357
33348356 32498491 32388597 32168820 32078889 32798906 

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