[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030827 
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-030900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1609
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 584...

VALID 030827Z - 030900Z

NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF SERN SD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
MN...FAR NRN IA INTO WRN WI.

WELL DEFINED AND ORGANIZED COLD POOL WILL SUPPORT EWD PROPAGATION OF
THE MCS NOW MOVING INTO WRN MN.  LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATED AN
EWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOW AT 40-45 KT ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PER
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND 07Z RUC SOUNDINGS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MN. 50
KT SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO SRN AND CENTRAL MN WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE BOW...WHILE 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET
EXTENDING FROM SD INTO MN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED MCS ORGANIZATION
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL MAINTAIN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  DESPITE THE STABLE
LAYER...WIND GUSTS AOB SEVERE LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD P0OL AND LLJ.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SRN MOST STORM AS IT TRACKS SEWD ACROSS SWRN TO
SRN MN.

RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATED A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE NRN PART OF
THE BOW OVER THE NRN PORTION OF WW 584...WHILE THE SRN PART OF THE
BOW REMAINED STRONGER AS THE LLJ IMPINGES UPON THIS REGION OF SRN
MN.  LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE SCENARIO OF
PERSISTENT AND STRONGER STORMS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SRN MN TOWARD
WEST CENTRAL WI.  THUS...NEW WW MAY BE ORIENTED FROM SERN SD TO WEST
CENTRAL WI...WHERE STRONGER WAA REGIME WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SEVERE
STORMS.

..PETERS.. 07/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

43889781 45049580 46079557 47379560 47319143 45829227
45579093 43599049 43349285 43259481 43129636 43199789 

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