[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030612 
MNZ000-NDZ000-030645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ND INTO PARTS OF NRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 583...

VALID 030612Z - 030645Z

NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON TO REPLACE WW 583.

REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM BOW ECHO OVER NRN MN TO GFK AND WWD TO
20 SE DVL.  MEANWHILE...STRONG BOW ECHO CONTINUED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
SERN ND AND ERN SD AT 40-45 KT.  MESO LOW ON THE NORTH END OF THIS
ND/SD BOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ALONG THE NWRN MN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS.  LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF 50 KT
LLJ WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/N OF NWRN MN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH INSTABILITY/EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND MESO LOW TRACKING ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS.. 07/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

47359879 48999883 49009462 48569292 47389310 

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