[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030258 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-030500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0958 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581...

VALID 030258Z - 030500Z

LONG-TRACK AND WELL-FORMED BOW ECHO COMPLEX CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD
NCNTRL SD AT OVER 50KT. OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE BOW APPEARS TO
HAVE DIMINISHED BASED ON RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS MAY
ONLY BE A TEMPORARY TREND AS DOWNSTREAM THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE CONVECTION. WITH 50-60KT MID
LEVEL JET STREAK DIRECTED INTO THE BACK OF THE BOWING COMPLEX...AND
BOWHEAD MESOLOW TAKING SHAPE WITHIN STRATIFORM RAIN REGION ACROSS
NWRN SD/SWRN ND...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT A LONG-LIVED AND
SEVERE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A NEW WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED AHEAD OF
THIS COMPLEX...ACROSS ERN PARTS OF SD/ND WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 07/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

42960398 45910407 45949892 46809875 46769669 45939667
44069643 44199874 42989956 

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