[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030413
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030413 
LAZ000-TXZ000-030645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 030413Z - 030645Z

CLUSTER OF STG-ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO A
MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE HOU METRO/FAR SERN TX
IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ADDITIONAL ISO SVR THREAT WILL OCCUR OVER
SWRN LA ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OVERALL A MARGINAL SVR THREAT IS
ANTICIPATED AND THUS A WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM. 

PALESTINE PROFILER AND FT. POLK VWP SHOWS 25-35 KTS WNWLY FLOW IN
THE 4-6 KM LAYER ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN MCV OVER NERN TX. LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK...BUT SELY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS IN THE
LOWEST 1 KM ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM UTS TO NEAR BPT TO
NORTH OF LCH WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT WEAK
SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES WITH STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. RATHER
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OFFSET STORM ROTATION AND
THUS ONLY MARGINAL HAIL IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A SMALL MCS WHILE MOVE SEWD
TOWARDS IAH/BPT AND LCH AREAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW END SVR
WIND THREAT AS WELL GIVEN PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE 850-500 MB
LAYER PER THE 00Z SHV AND LCH SOUNDINGS.

..CROSBIE.. 07/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

31419558 31459618 31229647 31039656 30559625 30279601
29619537 29529439 29589365 29749267 30189240 30849395 

WWWW